The recent discovery in Syria of the manufacture and use of chemical weapons by the Islamic State could well evolve the positions Franco-american toward a position more converged with Russia.
The United States and France will they reconsider their position on Bashar el-Assad? Credit Reuters
Atlantico: With this new, in what could be put into question the choice of Francois Hollande and Barrack Obama to put Bashar El Assad in enemy No. 1, rather than the Islamic State?
Alexandre del Valle: It is certain that there has been an evolution of the positions of the side of the European Union. Including that of Francois Hollande, who was the most anti-Bashar with the Americans, or even worse than the Americans it was not very long ago. All of a sudden, even if Laurent Fabius remains anti-Bashar, Francois Hollande has understood that, finally, we could accommodate a Bashar who would have a new role without actually having the power during a certain time. Then we are moving toward a more pragmatic approach, or would be at the table at the time the people of the regime and those who are not.
Before, Francois Holland wanted to exclude from the outset Bashar of the regime. In my book the Syrian Chaos, that we wrote with the Syrian opponent Randa Kassis we had rightly said that this solution was not realistic and that it should be absolutely associate the two parties. We cannot exclude from the outset a regime. We go back finally to the reason. It is a real change. We are going toward a solution or certain of the regime will be associated to a share of the negotiation for a ” after Bashar “, but in the meantime Bashar would be confirmed, and his Russian friends and Iranians would be responsible for him to accept to withdraw gradually.
Necessarily, the position of Barack Obama will also change a little, but this is not official. There are experts in the United Nations who make a genuine inquiry. For the moment, we have only a first revelation, ca has not been corroborated by experts on the long term, I do not think that that is enough to radically change the position of Barack Obama. But it is certain that this new revelation suggests that we have perhaps been a little quick in providing for years that the pre-condition was the downfall of Bashar.
We are therefore in a period of transition and this is certainly much more changes in the coming weeks. Up or this evolution may it go?
Even if there are empty gestures controlled against the Russians, i think there is a reality today: if the Russians continue to assist massively the regime, it will be much more difficult to support the position anti Bashar to a few months ago and even worse to make strikes against the regime.
The position of the Americans of before was clear: the regime and Bashar are enemy’s no. 1. Today the fact that the Russians are present on the ground makes it very difficult to keep this vision.
The Russians are much criticism, but I think that their mere presence makes it difficult to retain the current position. De facto, despite the posturing and the evolution of speech among the western, this revelation on the chemical weapons, as well as the Russian presence in Syria makes impossible the fact to totally dismantle the regime and we will try to find a solution a little more intelligent and pragmatic.
What Russia can she play the role of mediator between on one side the coalition France/USA, and of the other Bachard el Assad?
Russia wants a common front total against the jihadists. The Russian position is very clear. Wishing to a common front – which we included – and being ally to Iran and Syria: Russia is the only country which can afford to make the link and the balance between Syria and the west. We cannot have another caller that she. Westerners know very well that the Russians are more reasonable than the Iranians. They are extremely present in Syria with a vision much less detached than the Russians. The Russians accept that Bashar depart. They have assured for a very long time that they could live with a Syria in which Bashar was not good behavior. They have de facto the ability and even the ideas prepared for tried to push Bashar to withdraw gradually and to accept the new role that the west wants to give him for some time. Oddly enough we have not stopped not to criticize the Russians, whereas in fact the Russians and Europeans are spirited to evolve toward a position which is much more convergent that there are 2 or 3 years.
Russia has a central role. What they advocate since 3 years is that we are spirited finally to accept. We have accused Russia of having laundered the regime, and have prevented to defeat the regime. Today we realize that they were right. Their desire to have a pragmatic solution which would interact all parties, and not only the pro-Sunni, is resumed today by the west. Randa Kassis with which I wrote the Chaos Syrian , was very often in Russia for trying to convince the Russians that they could help the Syrians while accepting that Bashar El Assad was a problem. She had been able to obtain of the Russians a commitment on the fact that it was not good behavior. She has been demonized for having dared to propose to work with the Russians and to a lesser extent with Iran. She had even been accused of being a false opponent … when there is a civil war at one time or another; we are forced to find a solution for peace which combines both the good camp and the bad camp.
The solution that we propose in the Syrian Chaos is the pragmatism: associate the Russians and the Iranians to an output position, and gradually a departure by a door honorable by Bashar el Assad rather than requiring its eradication. The BHL positions of the Elysee and the Quai d’Orsay since a few months with a bidding war pro Sunni to do pleasure to Saudi Arabia and the requirement of the conditional departure prior to Bashar, all of this was totally unrealistic and they are beginning to admit.
We have not been able to prove that Syria used chemical weapons. Are we certain that the Islamic State has used?
Perhaps that we will have the evidence. This is not obvious. The experts working there. I think that in the coming weeks we will see a little more clear. I would not say that the regime has never used. What is certain is that it is very likely that the Islamic State this either grabbed the stocks of Sarin gas and mustard of the Syrians and it is extremely likely that they produce themselves. They have not really hidden. They have no limit in their ways.
Source: Yahoo France.
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