USA and Russia have never had a stable relationship, although these two military powers have cooperated in tackling terrorism around the world.
During the fight against the Nazi, the West and the East cooperated to topple Hitler and to eliminate the threat facing the world. Although, they were fighting for the same cause, the West was very concerned about the activities of the USSR’s army which created mistrust between the East and the West. Being the world’s first superpower, the United States always perceived Russia as a geopolitical foe. Former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright is believed to have said that the vast natural wealth of Russia is too big and too much for one country to possess. That creates a sense of panic in Russia where people think that after the West succeeded in dissolving the Soviet Union, now they are trying to bring Russia to its knees.
To end the Cold War, on December 25, 1991 former USSR leader Mikhail Gorbachev resigned as the last leader of the Soviet Union and dissolved the Soviet Union to hand power to Boris Yeltsin, the Russian’s President. This move allowed some republics within the Soviet Union’s dominance to be independent. No more USSR and the cold war was over, but the cold war mentality between the West and the East remained. NATO advancing closer to Russia’s border is a move that is considered a violation of the agreement between the United States and Russia. United States moving its missiles near Russia is a move that is seen as a threat to Russia’s sovereignty and safety. For his hard work in ending the cold war, Gorbachev was awarded a peace prize. He has also been compared to Nelson Mandela.
Unfortunately, the East and the West cannot be friends. These superpowers cannot get along for a long period of time; there are too many interests at risk. The West feels that it is too powerful to recognize Russia as a superpower. The West is tired of seeing Russia is gaining its military power back and standing against in some major issues in the world such as Syria. EU and U.S. see Putin as too powerful. There must be a second cold war; but who will win it?
The western value does not reach Russia; the American democracy is not accepted by Russia’s president Vladimir Putin. EU and United States started the second cold war. U.S. and EU politicians voiced to boycott the Sochi Olympics because of Russia’s crack down on gays. The Olympic game was successful. The plan failed. Two US senators called to boycott the 2018 World Cup in Russia, a plan that will likely fail again. FIFA’s President Sepp Blatter opposes such things and stands with Russia.
Since the ousting of Viktor Yanukovych in February 22, 2014, the relationship between the West and the East has deteriorated. With the EU and US pouring money into the Maidan Revolution, there was no way for Yanukovych to not be overthrown. Christopher Heer (@ChristophHeer52) wrote “US government paid me $100 a day to revolt in Kiev square to oust Yanukovych, why would I work here for $120/month.” EU and Washington did not live up to their commitment because a deal was reached before the ousting of Yanukovych; even though a deal was reached between them for Yanukovych to finish his term, they proceeded with the coup anyway. Such move was seen by Vladimir Putin as a threat against Russia’s interest. Russia accepted the Crimea referendum to join the Motherland so that it could have a full control of the Black Sea. Since Russia accepted Crimea’s referendum, the West has imposed several rounds of sanctions against Russia. Now the Cold War can no longer be hidden. The Cold War mentality is bold on both sides. Putin is considered a chess master and his reactions always go deep and never miss target, the West is the master of the world market; and the war begins.
In this new cold war, the EU has a lot more to lose than any other country while China is the winner.
Brussels and Washington cannot read Putin’s mind and that is a big headache for them. EU has too much to lose in any standoff with Russia from natural gas to fruits and vegetables, to luxury goods and automobiles. The Russian market is too big for the EU to lose. An embargo introduced by Russia against EU’s fruits and vegetables has caused a plethora of pain to EU’s economy. The same actions give rise to the Far Right in different countries such as France, Germany…EU cannot afford losing Russia as customer and as provider. The political dependence of Brussels on Washington has pushed Russia to the east. EU and the United States cannot afford to lose Russia’s cooperation in the fight against terrorism. The US coalition against ISIL has proven unsuccessful even though there have been some major blows against the terrorist organization. The isolation of Russia will be damaging for the world. The nuclear issues will never be resolved. The P5 + 1 will meet with Iran but no deal will be reached. North Korea will never be brought to negotiation table; even though, some of its actions show its readiness. Russia will be courting Iran and North Korea more and more. They have the same concerns; they are all under Washington’s sanctions. Russia is likely will resume its S-300 missiles contract to Iran which can be used as deterrence to any attack from US or Israel. Russia will get closer to North Korea; for example Putin just invited Kim Jung Un to Moscow next year. The world will be less safe and there is nothing that can be done because at least 2 of those 3 countries have Nuclear Arsenals. Russia signed an “oil for good” contract which will help Iran to overcome the embargo restriction of its oil. Iran will see its economy growing without any sanction relief from Brussels and Washington. Iran’s economy just grew 0.4 percent to avoid recession and it will grow stronger in the coming months or years. And it will be almost the same for North Korea as its market will be opened to investment from Russia. Some EU leaders have started to realize that and they have started to be more flexible. France’s President Francois Hollande stopped in Moscow on his way from Kazakhstan to discuss the Ukrainian crisis with Putin. Hollande showed a conciliatory tone and asked for Russia’s cooperation in ending the war in Ukraine. Later on Hollande asked EU’s leaders for sanction reliefs for Moscow and showed that EU leaders are not fully united.
Russia is playing everything it has in its hands and it has enough to keep the fight going for at least decade. Russia plays the Turkey card with Brussels. Turkey said that it will not join the NATO countries in imposing sanctions against Russia and it even signed a contract with Russia in building the Blue Stream Pipeline. Putin became tired of Brussels’s childish behavior, and he decided to cancel the South Stream Pipeline which was a great contract that would help European countries to bypass Ukraine and have a more secure gas delivery. Now the EU countries will have to get their gas at Turkey’s border. Turkey’s relation with EU has started deteriorating. EU and US leaders are accusing Recep Tayyip Erdoğan of violating the democratic principles. Turkey will unlikely be accepted in the EU and it will be a tense negotiation between Turkey and EU for any gas delivery at its border.
Brussels is politically dependent on the US. Joe Biden admitted that fact when he said that the US tells Brussels what to do and forced them to impose sanctions against Russia. Brussels cannot act independently (of Washington). The price will be high for EU. Russia and Iran account for more than 40 percent of the world’s natural gas, losing both markets is a blow to EU’s economy. Both countries, Russia and Iran, are under US sanctions. The United States can survive in any conflict with the East because it is 1) far from the East, 2) it has enough resources, 3) it is economically independent, and 4) it has enough military bases around the world unlike EU. In any scenario, EU is the loser.
Russia and BRICS are stepping up their fight against the Dollar hegemony. Russia and China started trading in their national currencies which is a big blow to the Dollar. BRICS bank is a blow to IMF which is Washington’s bank. Russia will get the help that it needs to keep the fight against the West. China said that it is ready to help Russia during this economic crisis.
Having the same interest in fighting the West’s controlled market and the hegemony of the Dollar, China and Russia have decided to get closer to survive. Starting with gas contracts to military contracts, China and Russia are close to becoming allies while Iran is not too far from joining. China is said to building a canal between the Atlantic and the Pacific Ocean that will reduce the American monopoly over the North and South American continents. To control the North and South American Continents, in 1903, the American President Theodore Roosevelt had Panama detach from Columbia and since then the US has controlled the Panama Canal. If China succeeds in building the canal connecting the Atlantic and the Pacific oceans, the American hegemony over the American continents (North and South) markets will end.
Isolating Russia is not good for the US, the EU, or the world. The world has too much to lose. Russia’s economy is too big to collapse. Russia is the richest country by means of natural resources. Russia is the leading superpower in nuclear weapons. Russia has the second most powerful army in the world after the United States. In any standoff with the West, EU will lose big and China will win big. Russia and United States will share some consequences but the world will lose the most.
contact: Ptavil@yahoo.fr @ptavil
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